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The Honest Record

How our Harness calls actually performed · 313 settled races · Last 7 days
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets fair

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 143 sent live, 4 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 313 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 147 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 41.5% 72.5%
Follow our Best Bets 57.1% 81.0%
The difference we make +15.6 pts +8.4 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -12.9%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 81% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

41.5%
Market fav win
72.5%
Market fav place
-22.0%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (313 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite thin we say back to win
Market fav: 104 races Win 65.4% Place 85.6% Flat ROI -10.6%
Our model pick: 104 races Win 65.4% Place 85.6% Flat ROI -10.6%
Competitive thin we say win or place
Market fav: 102 races Win 36.3% Place 71.6% Flat ROI -24.6%
Our model pick: 102 races Win 36.3% Place 71.6% Flat ROI -24.5%
Weak favourite thin we say place or pass
Market fav: 41 races Win 34.1% Place 68.3% Flat ROI -8.8%
Our model pick: 41 races Win 34.1% Place 68.3% Flat ROI -8.8%
Open race thin we say place or pass
Market fav: 66 races Win 16.7% Place 56.1% Flat ROI -44.2%
Our model pick: 66 races Win 19.7% Place 54.5% Flat ROI -31.7%

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 2,808 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0794) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0781). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.