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The Honest Record

How our Harness calls actually performed · 11 settled races · Today
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets noise

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 2 sent live.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 11 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 2 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 54.5% 63.6%
Follow our Best Bets 50.0% 50.0%
The difference we make +-4.5 pts +-13.6 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -5.0%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 50% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

54.5%
Market fav win
63.6%
Market fav place
+27.7%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (11 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Competitive noise we say win or place
Market fav: 8 races Win 50.0% Place 62.5% Flat ROI +3.1%
Our model pick: 8 races Win 50.0% Place 62.5% Flat ROI +3.1%
Today's competitive races:
MENANGLE R7 5:13 PM › SHEPPARTON R1 6:04 PM › See all 9 today ›
Weak favourite noise we say place or pass
Market fav: 2 races Win 100.0% Place 100.0% Flat ROI +190.0%
Our model pick: 2 races Win 100.0% Place 100.0% Flat ROI +190.0%
Today's weak favourite races:
MENANGLE R8 5:39 PM › WAGGA R3 5:57 PM › See all 11 today ›
Open race noise we say place or pass
Market fav: 1 races Win 0.0% Place 0.0% Flat ROI -100.0%
Our model pick: 1 races Win 0.0% Place 100.0% Flat ROI -100.0%
Today's open race races:
ALBION PARK R6 4:52 PM › WAGGA R1 5:03 PM › See all 7 today ›

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 86 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0869) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0837). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.