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The Honest Record

How our Harness calls actually performed · 8,587 settled races
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets solid

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 983 sent live, 1,652 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 8,587 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 2,634 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 42.6% 72.4%
Follow our Best Bets 61.3% 84.9%
The difference we make +18.7 pts +12.5 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -12.3%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 85% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

42.6%
Market fav win
72.4%
Market fav place
-13.9%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (8,587 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite solid we say back to win
Market fav: 2251 races Win 65.2% Place 86.6% Flat ROI -11.2%
Our model pick: 1536 races Win 65.2% Place 86.5% Flat ROI -11.2%
Competitive solid we say win or place
Market fav: 3198 races Win 41.0% Place 74.0% Flat ROI -15.4%
Our model pick: 2279 races Win 41.4% Place 74.3% Flat ROI -14.8%
Weak favourite solid we say place or pass
Market fav: 1470 races Win 31.6% Place 65.1% Flat ROI -14.3%
Our model pick: 1035 races Win 32.0% Place 64.5% Flat ROI -13.1%
Open race solid we say place or pass
Market fav: 1668 races Win 24.8% Place 56.7% Flat ROI -14.7%
Our model pick: 1216 races Win 24.3% Place 56.7% Flat ROI -16.4%

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 22,600 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0802) is a fraction behind the market's (0.0788). We don't beat the market on raw prediction — almost nobody does — which is exactly why our calls lean on race structure and discipline rather than claiming to out-pick the price.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.