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MARBURG

R1 12:54 PM R2 1:29 PM R3 2:04 PM R4 2:42 PM R5 3:17 PM R6 3:54 PM R7 4:32 PM R8 4:57 PM

Race 1

12:54 PM
1850m · 9 runners
🏁 Result
1st PENSION PLAN
2nd BETTER EQUUS
3rd TEN AND TWO
4th MISS ESSVEE
❌ Unplaced — LIGHTYEAR didn't feature
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
LIGHTYEAR P $1.02
place only ⭐ Best Bet
Dominant favourite — market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. LIGHTYEAR FAV TOP RATED 1 $1.38 $1.02 $2.26
9. STORMY MIDNIGHT 9 $5.50 $1.50 $7.52
3. MISS ESSVEE 3 $7.00 $1.85 $10.08
6. CASUA ART 6 $11.00 $2.05 $11.52
2. PENSION PLAN 2 $12.00 $2.40 $14.75
7. TEN AND TWO 7 $15.00 $2.80 $16.96
5. TRY AND STOP ME 5 $23.00 $3.80 $17.73
4. EL JEFE 4 $26.00 $4.00 $22.23
8. BETTER EQUUS 8 $151.00 $10.00 $89.57
Favourite record at MARBURG ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.38) sits in the <1.50 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 this race 64% 93% 28*
1.50–1.99 48% 84% 44*
2.00–2.49 43% 83% 35*
2.50–3.49 31% 74% 35*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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