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NEWCASTLE

R1 4:22 PM R2 4:53 PM R3 5:21 PM R4 5:52 PM R5 6:21 PM R6 6:52 PM R7 7:21 PM R8 7:48 PM R9 8:22 PM R10 9:01 PM

Race 4

5:52 PM
1609m ยท 9 runners
๐Ÿ“ Our record & guide for Newcastle Harness Racing Club โ€บ
๐Ÿ Result
1st NUGGET ROGERS โญ Best Bet
2nd PARADISE POINT
3rd MAJOR BYE
4th ARNIES ARMY
โœ… Place bet โ€” won outright โ€” NUGGET ROGERS finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
3
NUGGET ROGERS P $1.02
place only โญ Best Bet
Dominant favourite โ€” market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. NUGGET ROGERS FAV TOP RATED 3 $1.14 $1.02 $2.01
1. MAJOR BYE 1 $8.00 $1.26 $9.51
6. PARADISE POINT 6 $18.00 $2.45 $10.72
2. WALTER WARLOCK 2 $15.00 $2.05 $13.22
5. D J ROCK 5 $21.00 $2.70 $17.96
8. ARNIES ARMY 8 $31.00 $3.60 $18.59
4. AVENGER 4 $61.00 $4.75 $22.07
9. ROCKTAGONAL 9 $34.00 $3.70 $24.56
7. SPIRIT KING 7 $61.00 $4.75 $31.46
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.14) sits in the <1.50 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 this race 69% 90% 49*
1.50โ€“1.99 44% 78% 112
2.00โ€“2.49 41% 69% 108
2.50โ€“3.49 26% 57% 164
3.50โ€“4.99 19% 53% 43*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.