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BALLARAT

R1 5:40 PM R2 6:10 PM R3 6:40 PM R4 7:11 PM R5 7:43 PM R6 8:10 PM R7 8:44 PM R8 9:17 PM

Race 4

7:11 PM
2200m ยท 8 runners
๐Ÿ Result
1st NORMANDY NUGGET โญ Best Bet
2nd FAKE CULLECTION
3rd ICANMOTOR
4th SWEET FACE
โœ… Place bet โ€” won outright โ€” NORMANDY NUGGET finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
5
NORMANDY NUGGET P $1.02
place only โญ Best Bet
Dominant favourite โ€” market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
5. NORMANDY NUGGET FAV TOP RATED 5 $1.40 $1.02 $2.41
7. ICANMOTOR 7 $7.50 $1.50 $5.53
8. FAKE CULLECTION 8 $8.50 $1.70 $6.32
6. GOODTIME MAE 6 $12.00 $2.15 $11.31
3. IMAGUNNARESTNGO 3 $11.00 $2.00 $11.52
9. WATCH IT HAPPEN 9 $61.00 $4.75 $24.68
2. SWEET FACE 2 $71.00 $4.80 $37.25
1. BLUE OCEAN 1 $21.00 $2.45 $334.52
Favourite record at BALLARAT โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.40) sits in the <1.50 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 this race 73% 95% 22*
1.50โ€“1.99 35% 71% 51*
2.00โ€“2.49 31% 71% 42*
2.50โ€“3.49 34% 56% 59*
3.50โ€“4.99 23% 59% 22*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.