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NEWCASTLE

R1 5:12 PM R2 5:41 PM R3 6:06 PM R4 6:40 PM R5 7:11 PM R6 7:46 PM R7 8:21 PM R8 8:56 PM R9 9:31 PM

Race 4

6:40 PM
1609m ยท 9 runners
๐Ÿ“ Our record & guide for Newcastle Harness Racing Club โ€บ
๐Ÿ Result
1st CONCILIATE โญ Best Bet
2nd MODERN MISCHIEF
3rd RUMOUR STRIDE
4th THREETWONINE
โœ… Place bet โ€” won outright โ€” CONCILIATE finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
11
CONCILIATE P $1.02
place only โญ Best Bet
Dominant favourite โ€” market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
11. CONCILIATE FAV TOP RATED 11 $1.55 $1.02 $2.26
6. MODERN MISCHIEF 6 $4.60 $1.26 $5.58
10. RUMOUR STRIDE 10 $4.80 $1.30 $5.64
8. THREETWONINE 8 $17.00 $2.70 $16.39
9. CEEJAY HAICH 9 $34.00 $4.00 $23.60
7. CAPTAIN TIDS 7 $31.00 $3.90 $25.02
4. MY CONFIDANT 4 $41.00 $4.50 $29.61
1. EAGLEYE 1 $126.00 $5.25 $75.58
3. EXECUTIVEDECISIONS 3 $151.00 $7.00 $87.64
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.55) sits in the 1.50โ€“1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 69% 90% 42*
1.50โ€“1.99 this race 48% 80% 91
2.00โ€“2.49 43% 71% 83
2.50โ€“3.49 29% 61% 132
3.50โ€“4.99 15% 50% 34*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.