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BALLARAT

R1 5:37 PM R2 6:06 PM R3 6:36 PM R4 7:06 PM R5 7:36 PM R6 8:06 PM R7 8:36 PM R8 9:06 PM

Race 4

7:06 PM
1710m · 11 runners
🏁 Result
1st COLTRANE ⭐ Best Bet
2nd MISS HOLLY RED
3rd MILLY METER
4th SUFFARELL HILL
✅ Place bet — won outright — COLTRANE finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
6
COLTRANE P $1.12
place only ⭐ Best Bet
Dominant favourite — market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
6. COLTRANE FAV TOP RATED 6 $1.65 $1.12 $2.54
9. PIPALICIOUS 9 $4.40 $1.38 $5.51
7. SUFFARELL HILL 7 $7.50 $2.00 $8.06
2. MOONLIGHT BILLY 2 $17.00 $2.90 $15.15
1. ONE MORE MOVE 1 $16.00 $2.50 $15.87
3. MISS HOLLY RED 3 $21.00 $3.50 $20.19
11. WATCH THE BAY 11 $34.00 $4.80 $30.42
5. MILLY METER 5 $41.00 $5.25 $32.60
8. KICKABARREL 8 $51.00 $5.50 $38.75
4. ARIVADERCHI 4 $91.00 $7.00 $58.05
10. I AM SKYE CHIOLA 10 $81.00 $7.00 $66.05
Favourite record at BALLARAT ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.65) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 this race 35% 61% 23*
2.00–2.49 38% 71% 21*
2.50–3.49 31% 44% 32*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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