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NEWCASTLE

R1 5:10 PM R2 5:40 PM R3 6:10 PM R4 6:40 PM R5 7:10 PM R6 7:40 PM R7 8:10 PM R8 8:40 PM

Race 1

5:10 PM
1609m ยท 9 runners
๐Ÿ“ Our record & guide for Newcastle Harness Racing Club โ€บ
๐Ÿ Result
1st HES MY REASON
2nd CHEDDAR VALLEY
3rd UPSTREAM
4th IRE OF THE DRAGON
โŒ Unplaced โ€” ROCKY MONALOO didn't feature
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price โ€” but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
ROCKY MONALOO P $1.12
place only โญ Best Bet
Dominant favourite โ€” market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
9
HES MY REASON W $7.00
Form view ยท saver 25.6% above market on form
Form model rates this runner above its market price. Track+distance: 50% (4 starts) ยท Recent form: 1111
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests โ€” a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings โ€บ
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ROCKY MONALOO FAV TOP RATED 1 $1.70 $1.12 $2.71
4. THE CREEK 4 $5.50 $1.50 $6.52
9. HES MY REASON 9 $7.00 $1.65 $7.19
6. ROCKIN BULL 6 $10.00 $2.25 $10.12
3. UPSTREAM 3 $13.00 $2.45 $12.51
5. BODYLINE 5 $15.00 $2.90 $13.87
7. CHEDDAR VALLEY 7 $26.00 $3.90 $21.39
8. IRE OF THE DRAGON 8 $71.00 $5.75 $45.56
2. SKY CITY 2 $81.00 $5.00 $53.21
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE โ€บ

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results โ€” the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.70) sits in the 1.50โ€“1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 69% 91% 32*
1.50โ€“1.99 this race 48% 78% 69
2.00โ€“2.49 46% 75% 63
2.50โ€“3.49 32% 66% 102
3.50โ€“4.99 17% 50% 24*

Descriptive track record from settled results โ€” independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence โ€” they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly ยท 18+ ยท GambleAware.